Calculating task completion estimates

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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 21.09.2017 02:13

Zathras's issues are interesting. I think his SATA controller has problems reliably using 4 or more partitions on the drive. So ... I'll keep the SSD Drive upgrade, but only setup 3 partitions - Windows 10 Release, Windows 10 Insider Fast, and Data. That's all done, and he's *finally* crunching again.

RacerX loves his new CPU cooler, and completed his old v1.17 task, so I'm setting up his Windows 10 Insider Fast partition, which he never had fully setup. He'll hopefully be crunching in a little while.. But hurray, he's on Insider Fast again!

That only leaves Nitro, with a v1.17 task... 510 days CPU time and counting ... in the Windows 10 Release partition... with Windows Update set for "Current Branch for Business" so he doesn't upgrade to the Fall Creators Update yet. Go Nitro Go!
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 22.09.2017 04:01

Tough couple of weeks, but things are better now, I think.

Windows 10: We're closing in on the final release candidate builds for Fall Creators Update in the Insiders Fast ring. Builds are being installed every 2 days at this point. Fun!

Speed: Cruising smoothly, working on 3 tasks, and still looking for 4 or 5 new tasks.

RacerX: Had a water cooler malfunction, the new one is installed and works great - According to my calculations, he only had 2.4 days down time with that! Also, he completed his v1.17 task. So, he's now on Windows 10 Insider builds again, running VirtualBox v5.1.x, crunching 2 tasks and looking for 1.

Nitro: Still crunching on his 4 tasks (including a v1.17 task), in the Release partition with "Current Branch for Business" set, so he doesn't get the Fall Creators Update yet since it is incompatible with VirtualBox v5.0.x. At 521 days, one of his tasks will soon surpass his record of 544.1 days!

Zathras: What a pain his problem had become. Ever since losing that task due to Windows freezing, I vowed to find the culprit, including purchasing a new SSD drive, and installing clean installs of Windows 10 about 20 times. So far as I can tell, the problem happens when there are 4 or more partitions on the drive. So, instead of quadruple booting like normal (Fast Skip Ahead, Fast, Slow, Release), I now have him set for just 2 OS installs (Fast, Release) and a Data partition. So far, so good. Estimated downtime: 8 days. Damn. At least he didn't lose his current task, and he's also looking for 1 more.

Code: Select all
         Wanting, Status (In progress, Validation pending, Validation inconclusive, Valid, Invalid, Error)
Speed:     4/5       3,  9, 0, 3, 1, 1
RacerX:     1        2,  3, 0, 4, 0, 33
Nitro:      0        4,  1, 0, 3, 0, 2
Zathras:    1        1,  2, 0, 1, 0, 1

Code: Select all
Speed Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-5960X CPU @ 3.00GHz
                     301.6d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     147.0d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     63.3d  -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     192.4d -- 9/1/2017   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     216.4d -- 8/26/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     144.7d -- 8/22/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     320.3d -- 8/12/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     189.4d -- 8/6/2017   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     228.5d -- 5/24/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     276.1d -- 5/4/2017   -- Completed and validated
                     217.9d -- 4/23/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     217.4d -- 4/17/2017  -- Completed, can't validate - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2, Too many errors (may have bug)
                     204.1d -- 3/24/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     262.8d -- 3/22/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     37.8d  -- 9/27/2016  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 3, Initial replication 2
                     28.7d  -- 9/9/2016   -- Completed and validated
                     9.0d   -- 7/13/2016  -- FAILED!
RacerX Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i7 CPU 965 @ 3.20GHz
                     115.9d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 97.290%, progress.txt 0.972902 -- switched to running ALL THREADS (since 1.17 task is complete, and VirtualBox upgraded)
                     24.7d  -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 34.509%, progress.txt 0.345099 -- switched to running ALL THREADS (since 1.17 task is complete, and VirtualBox upgraded)
                     355.4d -- 9/20/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 3, Initial replication 2
                     318.8d -- 7/6/2017   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     178.9d -- 4/27/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     302.7d -- 9/13/2016  -- Completed and validated
                     174.1d -- 8/7/2016   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     182.3d -- 7/13/2016  -- Completed and validated
                     16.5d  -- 7/12/2015  -- Completed and validated
Nitro Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i7 CPU Q 740 @ 1.73GHz
                     521.0d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     258.2d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     163.9d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 33.392%, progress.txt 0.333923
                     155.7d -- 9/21/2017  -- UI 34.196%, progress.txt 0.341964
                     67.2d  -- 3/30/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     544.1d -- 3/8/2017   -- Completed and validated
                     226.9d -- 11/19/2016 -- Completed and validated
                     353.3d -- 10/27/2016 -- Completed, waiting for validation - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 3, Initial replication 2
Zathras Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i5 CPU M 520 @ 2.40GHz
                     3.0d   -- 9/21/2017 -- UI  1.704%, progress.txt 0.017043
                     64.0d  -- 8/25/2017  -- FAILED!
                     353.8d -- 8/16/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 1
                     555.9d -- 5/1/2017   -- Completed and validated
                     303.3d -- 6/26/2016  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 01.10.2017 15:17

Still happily crunching away.
Speed completed a task, Zathras seems to be stable these days, and Nitro is getting very close to beating his personal best on task duration!
Task availability is really sparse right now, I believe only 130 monsters are "in the wild"! Nevertheless, RacerX persisted, and got one :)

Code: Select all
         Wanting, Status (In progress, Validation pending, Validation inconclusive, Valid, Invalid, Error)
Speed:     5/6       2,  9, 0, 4, 1, 1
RacerX:     0        3,  3, 0, 4, 0, 33
Nitro:      0        4,  1, 0, 3, 0, 2
Zathras:    1        1,  2, 0, 1, 0, 1

Code: Select all
Speed Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-5960X CPU @ 3.00GHz
                     156.1d -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     72.4d  -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     303.7d -- 9/26/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     192.4d -- 9/1/2017   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     216.4d -- 8/26/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     144.7d -- 8/22/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     320.3d -- 8/12/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     189.4d -- 8/6/2017   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     228.5d -- 5/24/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     276.1d -- 5/4/2017   -- Completed and validated
                     217.9d -- 4/23/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     217.4d -- 4/17/2017  -- Completed, can't validate - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2, Too many errors (may have bug)
                     204.1d -- 3/24/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     262.8d -- 3/22/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     37.8d  -- 9/27/2016  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 3, Initial replication 2
                     28.7d  -- 9/9/2016   -- Completed and validated
                     9.0d   -- 7/13/2016  -- FAILED!
RacerX Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i7 CPU 965 @ 3.20GHz
                     125.0d -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     33.9d  -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 47.234%, progress.txt 0.472341
                     5.6d   -- 10/1/2017  -- UI  2.953%, progress.txt 0.029536
                     355.4d -- 9/20/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 3, Initial replication 2
                     318.8d -- 7/6/2017   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     178.9d -- 4/27/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     302.7d -- 9/13/2016  -- Completed and validated
                     174.1d -- 8/7/2016   -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
                     182.3d -- 7/13/2016  -- Completed and validated
                     16.5d  -- 7/12/2015  -- Completed and validated
Nitro Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i7 CPU Q 740 @ 1.73GHz
                     530.4d -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     267.6d -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 98.765%, progress.txt 0.98765
                     173.3d -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 35.303%, progress.txt 0.353033
                     165.0d -- 10/1/2017  -- UI 36.243%, progress.txt 0.362436
                     67.2d  -- 3/30/2017  -- Completed and validated
                     544.1d -- 3/8/2017   -- Completed and validated
                     226.9d -- 11/19/2016 -- Completed and validated
                     353.3d -- 10/27/2016 -- Completed, waiting for validation - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 3, Initial replication 2
Zathras Tasks: Intel(R) Core(TM) i5 CPU M 520 @ 2.40GHz
                     12.3d  -- 10/1/2017  -- UI  6.910%, progress.txt 0.069103
                     64.0d  -- 8/25/2017  -- FAILED!
                     353.8d -- 8/16/2017  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 0 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 1
                     555.9d -- 5/1/2017   -- Completed and validated
                     303.3d -- 6/26/2016  -- Completed, waiting for validation - 1 in progress - Minimum quorum 2, Initial replication 2
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 06.10.2017 06:12

Tonight, I'm calculating how long it'll take Nitro to get done with his current v1.17 task, currently at 534.4 days.

Web link: http://www.rnaworld.de/rnaworld/workunit.php?wuid=6330820

Nitro is:
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7 CPU Q 740 @ 1.73GHz
Multiplier and Turbo: 13, 1/1/6/9
Cores: 4
Hyperthreading Supported: Y
Max Threads: 8
Passmark score (all threads, total): 3,206
Passmark score (single thread): 915
Passmark score (all threads, per thread): 401
BOINC Measured FLOPS (million ops/sec): 1,773.00

Wingman is:
Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-4930K CPU @ 3.40GHz
Multiplier and Turbo: 34, 2/2/3/3/3/5
Cores: 6
Hyperthreading Supported: Y
Max Threads: 12
Passmark score (all threads, total): 13,060
Passmark score (single thread): 1,998
Passmark score (all threads, per thread): 1,088
BOINC Measured FLOPS (million ops/sec): 4,218.82

My estimated completion times, based on CPU stats:
Code: Select all
     Wingman status: Completed: 2 Sep 2014, 20:54:45 -- Intel(R) Core(TM) i7-4930K CPU @ 3.40GHz -- CPU Time: 19,398,290 -- 224d 12:24:50
  Wingman estimates:
   You All Threads, Wingman All Threads:      52,631,769   609d 3:56:09
   You All Threads, Wingman Single Thread:      96,652,826   1118d 16:00:26
   You Single Thread, Wingman All Threads:      23,065,945   266d 23:12:25
   You Single Thread, Wingman Single Thread:   42,358,233   490d 6:10:33
   BOINC Measured FLOPS (million ops/sec):      46,157,865   534d 5:37:45


I've kept track of when I applied hyperthreading to this task:
213.3d all threads (hyperthreading)
126.9d half threads (no hyperthreading)
121.2d all threads (hyperthreading)
73.0d half threads (no hyperthreading)

Let's assume Wingman was set for All Threads. I know, it's an assumption, but I think it's a correct one based on additional research/stalking of the host :)

So, now I need a "You Half Threads" value.

Nitro multipliers are: 13, 1/1/6/9
Nitro single-threaded: Uses a multiplier of 13+9 = 22.
Nitro half-threaded: Uses a multiplier of 13+1 = 14.
So now I can use (22/14) to create a new Half-thread estimate, based from the single-thread estimate:
Code: Select all
   You Single Thread, Wingman All Threads:      23,065,945   266d 23:12:25
becomes
   You Half Thread, Wingman All Threads:      (23,065,945 * 22/14 = 36246485)   419d 12:28:05


So the estimates I care about now are:
Code: Select all
   You All Threads, Wingman All Threads:      52,631,769   609d 3:56:09   609.2d
   You Half Thread, Wingman All Threads:      36246485   419d 12:28:05   419.5d


Now I'll calculate "percent completions" for those chunks, based on the assumption that Wingman was set for All Threads:
213.3d all threads ... % complete = 213.3/609.2 = 35.0%
126.9d half threads ... % complete = 126.9/419.5 = 30.3%
121.2d all threads ... % complete = 121.2/609.2 = 19.9%
73.0d half threads ... % complete = 73.0/419.5 = 17.4%

So, this means I am (35.0 + 30.3 + 19.9 + 17.4)
= 102.6% done with this task (if Wingman was using ALL threads)

According to my calculations, this means that it should be completed ANY DAY NOW!!!
:) GO NITRO GO!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For giggles, I wonder if I can calculate an estimate based on wingman using half threads.

Wingman multipliers are: 34, 2/2/3/3/3/5
Wingman single-threaded: Uses a multiplier of 34+5=39.
Wingman half-threaded: Uses a multiplier of 34+2=36.

Code: Select all
   You Single Thread, Wingman Single Thread:   42,358,233   490d 6:10:33   490.3d
becomes
   You Single Thread, Wingman Half Thread:   (42,358,233 * 36/39 = 39099907.38461538)   452d 13:05:07   452.5d
becomes
   You Half Thread, Wingman Half Thread:   (39099907.38461538 * 22/14 = 61442711.6043956)   711d 3:25:11   711.1d


Code: Select all
   You All Threads, Wingman Single Thread:      96,652,826   1118d 16:00:26   1118.7d
becomes
   You All Threads, Wingman Half Thread:      (96,652,826 * 36/39 =   89217993.23076923) 1032d 14:46:33   1032.6d


Now I'll calculate "percent completions" for those chunks, based on the assumption that Wingman was set for HALF Threads:
213.3d all threads ... % complete = 213.3/1032.6 = 20.7%
126.9d half threads ... % complete = 126.9/711.1 = 17.8%
121.2d all threads ... % complete = 121.2/1032.6 = 11.7%
73.0d half threads ... % complete = 73.0/711.1 = 10.3%

So, this means I am (20.7 + 17.8 + 11.7 + 10.3)
= 60.5% done with this task (if Wingman was using HALF threads)

So yeah, let's assume he was using ALL threads, shall we? 8)
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 06.10.2017 08:42

I have updated my calculator spreadsheet, so I can easily do calculations that can assume you're using "Half Threads" or the wingman used "Half Threads".
It's attached - check it out! :)
PS: The values luckily match what I did in the prior post.

BOINC Task Estimate Calculator.xlsx
(15.98 KiB) Downloaded 10 times
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 11.10.2017 01:55

Zathras picked up a new task, hurray! He's fully loaded now, along with RacerX and Nitro.
Speed is still searching.
.... and ....
GO NITRO GO. "Any day now" ... "or within 280 more days" ... lol.
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby gemini8 » 11.10.2017 06:18

'Any day now, any day now - you shall be released.' -sings-
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 11.10.2017 07:49

:D
I purchased an SSD for him, as his "completion reward", when he's done.
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby gemini8 » 11.10.2017 10:24

:biggrin4:
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 13.10.2017 20:15

Speed has picked up 2 new tasks - Woot! Of course, he still wants MOARRRRR!
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby gemini8 » 14.10.2017 06:23

I'm still waiting for the first one to respond to my active search.
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Re: Calculating task completion estimates

Unread postby Jacob Klein » 14.10.2017 06:47

:) These monsters are hard to find.
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